A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
